Subroto Roy notes New Delhi’s policy-makers, after being blasted by him for five years, yesterday admitted inflation is in “double-digits”. Better late than never! Now, let’s see, top up 5% Errors, Omissions & Other Misunderestimations, 2% population, & what was that Money Supply Growth? 22%? The One Minute Subroto Roy Estimate of Real Per Capita GDP Growth in India then becomes 22-10-5-2= 5%. Economic Inequality? Don’t even ask…
Subroto Roy notes that of the four others who were appointed by Rajiv on 25 Sep 1990, following his solitary 18 Sep meeting, two have been now mendacious in print: one, exposed in Nov 2007, fell silent thereafter given the magnitude of the lie, the other has engaged last week in his perennial bluff, waffle & *suppressio veri*. The General is probably the least mendacious of the four but too old now & too distant from Delhi.
Subroto Roy thinks the Americans have made some epistemological mistakes in their search for Osama, e.g.. in assuming the search is merely for, as it were, a lanky basketball player who has gone AWOL or is playing truant, rather than someone who is seen as a highly respected hero in the Muslim world. For example, Osama does not have to go to dialysis, dialysis comes to him.
Subroto Roy says Osama will not be found if he is being looked for in the wrong places. As I have said since at least 2006, he is probably in a comfortable oasis in the North African desert.
Subroto Roy reads Hans Suter say “suddenly the Swiss Franc looks once again attractive” and adds “I would bet on the Ozzie dollar too… Oh I have not even looked at where it is…. going by the problems of the Eurozone, USA, Japan, sterling alone… “
Subroto Roy recalls, in memory of St Patrick’s Day, hitchhiking through the Republic of Ireland in March-April 1975, all the way from Dublin to Killarney and back, hearing about places where the IRA trained its fighters, spending a night in a barn, and drinking a lot of Guinness on every day except Sunday when, for one hour, everyone went to Church..
Subroto Roy said to his father earlier this evening that he feels he has said and done what he can for India’s economy (and will wait for New Delhi to catch up if it wishes or is able to). …
Subroto Roy thinks both the PRC and the West are wrong about the yuan problem in its fundamentals. What the PRC needs to work towards is making its currency a *hard currency* of the world economy: that means getting its government accounting, public
finances and monetary economics right — which is something *much* harder to do and *vastly* more important than any specific fixed exchange rate of the yuan at a given time with the USD. Learn from what Milton Friedman said in the PRC in the Fall of 1988, see his memoirs with Rose D Friedman titled *Two Lucky People*, Chicago 1998 — a book in which a young man with my name is mentioned too 🙂 ….
Subroto Roy is amazed that business-cycle theory and history — always a most difficult, subtle and confusing part of economics — has now become child’s play for everyone except himself, and even the most dimwitted commentator claims to know that China and India were down last month but now seem up and similar profound truths….
Subroto Roy believes — partly from personal experience — that there is only one really sustainable way to fight government corruption whether in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, the UK, the USA, Russia, China or Mars: tough and clean government accounting and audit processes allied with an uncorrupted press/media. And without clean government accounting, incidentally, all public finance and hence almost all monetary policy becomes meaningless.
Subroto Roy suggests one reason China has far outpaced India in exports is because it was willing to focus on manufacturing common man mass consumption items like toys, umbrellas, winter clothing etc for a start, where India’s conceited nomenclatura businessmen/ bureaucrats either maintained traditional imperial exports like textiles, raw materials & tea or chose a high-end middle-class item like software….