What happened in the American Presidential Election of 2020? Some obvious observations… (An ongoing note)

16 December 2020

The empirical issue is simple… or at least it is simple to state… Was there 0 illegality in the average 8% difference in vote growth between @JoeBiden & @realDonaldTrump? If so Mr Biden won fair and square. But if some of the difference in growth was bad it could have altered swing State outcomes…

13 December 2020 Yesterday I did an elementary analysis of the American Presidential voting data across 50 States and the District of Columbia, contrasting 2020 with 2016. It turns out to be obvious that both sides saw massive growth from 2016. On average the recorded Democrat vote grew by some 8% more than the growth of the Trump vote. The explanations may be innocent or not or more likely some mixture of both. Innocent explanations of large vote growths on both sides are eg demographic changes (more first time 18yr old voters voting than before); more canvassing of the elderly, the infirm, the very poor; better campaigning; etc. And there could be known and/or unknown illegalities as well.

Note the Arizona and Georgia difference in growth between Democrats and Mr Trump is much larger than the average, Michigan’s difference in growth is about average, and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is each about half the average difference in growth.

And look just a bit to see how vastly the Trump vote grew and exceeded the Democratic vote growth, not just in Florida, but in eg California Hawaii New York Illinois and DC too…

Utah had the most massive growth on both sides…

My analysis is simple, clear, and made relevant by the pompous and needless reference to quadrillions and Z-tests in the Texas vs Pennsylvania #TexasLawsuit in the US Supreme Court!

Caveat: some young person do check my spreadsheets for errors… Disclosure: Both @realDonaldTrump and @SenSanders praised a trade-policy talk of mine at a conference back in Sep 1983 Washington…

More to come…