India’s 2009 General Elections: How drastically will the vote-share of political parties change from 2004?

Close to 389 million valid votes were cast in India’s previous General Election in 2004 to the 14th Lok Sabha, according to  the Election Commission’s volume STATISTICAL REPORT ON GENERAL ELECTIONS, 2004 TO THE 14th LOK SABHA VOLUME III (DETAILS FOR ASSEMBLY SEGMENTS OF PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCIES).

Unfortunately, the Election Commission, like the Government of India in general,  remains extremely uncomfortable with using  Excel or any spreadsheets at all, and hence much of the information they provide remains unproductive — reflecting, I am afraid,  rather obsolescent technology and organisation and management. From an Excel spreadsheet I have had to create for myself using EC data, my calculations give the following breakdown of the votes received in 2004 by most of the larger political parties:

2004 Lok Sabha Elections
ADMK    AllIndiaAnnaDravidaMunnetraKazhagam       8,547,014
AGP    AsomGanaParishad                    2,069,600
AIFB    AllIndiaForwardBloc                    1,365,055
AITC    AllIndiaTrinamoolCongress                    7,863,220
BJD    BijuJanataDal                    5,082,849
BJP    BharatiyaJanataParty                    86,181,116
BSP    BahujanSamajParty                    21,037,968
CPI    CommunistPartyofIndia                    5,484,111
CPI(ML)(L)    CommunistPartyofIndia(Marxist-Leninist)(Liberation)                    1,280,240
CPM    CommunistPartyofIndia(Marxist)                    22,065,283
DMK    DravidaMunnetraKazhagam                    7,064,393
INC    IndianNationalCongress                    103,118,475
IND    Independents                    16,523,857
INLD    IndianNationalLokDal                    1,918,943
JD(S)    JanataDal(Secular)                    5,732,296
JD(U)    JanataDal(United)                    9,129,366
JMM    JharkhandMuktiMorcha                    1,846,843
MDMK    MarumalarchiDravidaMunnetraKazhagam                    1,679,870
PMK    PattaliMakkalKatchi                    2,169,020
NCP    NationalistCongressParty                    7,019,236
RJD    RashtriyaJanataDal                    9,384,147
RLD    RashtriyaLokDal                    2,463,603
RSP    RevolutionarySocialistParty                    1,689,794
SAD    ShiromaniAkaliDal                    3,506,681
SHS    ShivSena                    7,050,432
SP    SamajwadiParty                    16,822,902
TDP    TeluguDesam                    11,844,811
TRS    TelanganaRashtraSamithi                    2,441,405

That accounts for 372,382,530.  The precise total of valid votes that I get by tabulating EC data using my spreadsheet is 388,920,557.  The EC itself reports in the very same document a total of 388,672,504.  The percentage difference is close enough to zero but it should be zero itself; I shall be delighted if my spreadsheet’s total is the incorrect one somehow, even though it uses the EC’s own data; but it does lead me to ask: “Who, if anyone, audits the Election Commission’s numerical calculations and vote tallies?  Why  is India’s ordinary public not informed about all this and other processes of the Election Commission perfectly transparently as a matter of routine?  Is reform necessary of the processes and procedures of the Election Commission itself?”.

(Incidentally, the slight discrepancy in the totals could have arisen perhaps because my spreadsheet does, correctly, include the relatively small number of postal ballots, whereas the EC’s total possibly has not done.)

Raw votes  like those described above do not of course translate directly into seats in Parliament but even so they indicate the state of popular political opinion in 2004. By how much will that popular opinion be found to have changed in 2009?  How will demographic changes, and the delimitation exercise that has redrawn constituencies, affect the new outcomes?  These are the kind of grown-up adult questions to ask  yourself if you get bored with the endless pretentious waffle that emerges from our talking-heads on TV  etc regarding the ongoing election.

Notice too the 16.5 million people of India who voted in 2004 for Independents!  What on earth has made Dr Manmohan Singh recently initiate an absurd debate against them?

Here below as well is the full list of  all parties that were in contention in 2004; if you want to know the vote-share any of them received according to my spreadsheet, send in a comment to this post and I shall try to respond.  Better still, look up the EC volume mentioned and create your own spreadsheet from its data, and tell me how accurate mine is.  (But beware, the spreadsheet will have some 60,000 rows to start with!)

Subroto Roy, Kolkata

List of parties in 2004

AB AkhandBharti
ABCD(A)    AkhilBharatiyaCongressDal(Ambedkar)
ABDBM    AkhilBharatiyaDeshBhaktMorcha
ABHM    AkhilBharatHinduMahasabha
ABHS    AkhilBharatiyaSena
ABJS    AkhilBharatiyaJanSangh
ABLTASJM    AkhilBharatiyaLokTantrikAlp-SankhyakJanMorcha
ABLTP    AkhilBharatiyaLoktantraParty
ABRAHP    AkhilBharatiyaRashtriyaAzadHindParty
ABRS    AkhilBharatiyaRajaryaSabha
AC    ArunachalCongress
AD    ApnaDal
ADMK    AllIndiaAnnaDravidaMunnetraKazhagam
AGP    AsomGanaParishad
AIFB    AllIndiaForwardBloc
AIMF    AllIndiaMinoritiesFront
AIMIM    AllIndiaMajlis-E-IttehadulMuslimeen
AITC    AllIndiaTrinamoolCongress
AJSU    AllJharkhandStudentsUnion
AKMDMP    AllKeralaM.G.R.DravidaMunnetraParty
AMB    AmraBangalee
ANC    AmbedkarNationalCongress
AP    AwamiParty
ARP    AmbedkaristRepublicanParty
ASDC    AutonomousStateDemandCommittee
ASP    AmbedkarSamajParty
BBM    BharipaBahujanMahasangha
BBP    BharatiyaBackwardParty
BED    BharatiyaEktaDal
BEP    BharatiyaEklavyaParty
BGTD    BharatiyaGaonTajDal
BJD    BijuJanataDal
BJP    BharatiyaJanataParty
BJVP    BharatiyaJanvadiParty
BKD    BahujanKisanDal
BKLJP    BharatKiLokJimmedarParty
BKRP    BharatKrantiRakshakParty
BLKD    BharatiyaLokKalyanDal
BLP    BharatiyaLabourParty
BMP(AI)    BharatiyaMuhabbatParty(AllIndia)
BMSM    BharatiyaMinoritiesSurakshaMahasangh
BMVP    BharatiyaManavataVikasParty
BNP    BharatiyaNavshaktiparty
BNRP    BharatiyaNagrikParty
BPSGKD    BharatiyaPrajatantrikShudhGandhiwadiKrishakDal
BPSP    BiharPeople’sParty
BPTP    BharatiyaPrajatantraParty
BRP    BharatiyaRashtravadiPaksha
BRPP    BharatiyaRepublicanPaksha
BSDP    BhartiSarvadarshiParishad
BSJM    BharatiyaSurajyaManch
BSK    BharatiyaSarvkalayanKrantiDal
BSP    BahujanSamajParty
BVP    BahujanVikasParty
CPI    CommunistPartyofIndia
CPI(ML)(L)    CommunistPartyofIndia(Marxist-Leninist)(Liberation)
CPM    CommunistPartyofIndia(Marxist)
CSP    ChhattisgarhiSamajParty
DBP    DeshBhaktParty
DBSP    DemocraticBharatiyaSamajParty
DMK    DravidaMunnetraKazhagam
EKD(UP)    EktaKrantiDalU.P.
ES    EktaShakti
EU    EphraimUnion
FCI    FederalCongressofIndia
FPM    FederalPartyofManipur
GGP    GondvanaGantantraParty
HEAP    HinduEktaAndolanParty
HJP    HindustanJantaParty
HM    HindMorcha
HVP    HaryanaVikasParty
IBSP    IndianBahujanSamajwadiParty
IFDP    IndianFederalDemocraticParty
IJP    IndianJusticeParty
INC    IndianNationalCongress
IND    Independent
INL    IndianNationalLeague
INLD    IndianNationalLokDal
JCP    JanChetnaParty
JD(S)    JanataDal(Secular)
JD(U)    JanataDal(United)
JDP    JharkhandDisomParty
JHP    JaiHindParty
JHSP    JanhitSamajParty
JJ    JebamaniJanata
JKAL    JammuAndKashmirAwamiLeague
JKN    Jammu&KashmirNationalConference
JKNPP    Jammu&KashmirNationalPanthersParty
JKP    JharkhandParty
JKP(N)    JharkhandParty(Naren)
JKPDP    Jammu&KashmirPeoplesDemocraticParty
JKPP    JharkhandPeople’sParty
JMM    JharkhandMuktiMorcha
JMP    JanmangalPaksh
JP    JanataParty
JSP    JansattaParty
JUM    JanaUnnayanMancha
JVP    JanataVikasParty
KEC    KeralaCongress
KEC(M)    KeralaCongress(M)
KKJHS    KrantiKariJaiHindSena
KMM    KrantikariManuwadiMorcha
KNDP    KannadaNaduParty
KSVP    KrantikariSamyavadiParty
KVSP    KosiVikasParty
LBP    LokBhalaiParty
LCP    LoktantrikChetnaParty
LJNSP    LokJanShaktiParty
LP(S)    LabourParty(Secular)
LPI(V)    LabourPartyOfIndia(V.V.Prasad)
LPSP    LokpriyaSamajParty
LRP    LokRajyaParty
LSD    LokSewaDal
LSWP    LoktantrikSamajwadiParty
MAG    MaharashtrawadiGomantak
MB(S)P    MoolBharati(S)Party
MBT    MajlisBachaoTahreek
MC    MominConference
MCO    MarxistCo-Ordination
MCPI(S)    MarxistCommunistPartyofIndia(S.S.Srivastava)
MDMK    MarumalarchiDravidaMunnetraKazhagam
MJM    ManavJagritiManch
MNF    MizoNationalFront
MNVP    ManuvadiParty
MPP    ManipurPeople’sParty
MRRC    MaharashtraRajivCongress
MRS    MudirajRashtriyaSamithi
MUL    MuslimLeagueKeralaStateCommittee
NBNP    NavbharatNirmanParty
NCP    NationalistCongressParty
NLP    NationalLoktantrikParty
NMNP    NidayaMalik(N)Party
NPF    NagalandPeoplesFront
NPF    NagalandPeoplesFront
NSP    NationalStudentsParty
NSSP    NiswarthSewaParty
NSTP    NaariShaktiParty
NTRTDP(LP)    NTRTeluguDesamParty(LakshmiParvathi)
PBLP    PhuleBhartiLokParty
PBRML    PaschimBangaRajyaMuslimLeague
PDP    PeoplesDemocraticParty
PDS    PartyforDemocraticSocialism
PHSP    PichhraSamajParty
PMK    PattaliMakkalKatchi
PMP    ParmarthParty
PMSP    PragatisheelManavSamajParty
PP    PrajaParty
PPOI    PyramidPartyofIndia
PRBP    PeoplesRepublicanParty
PRCP    PrabuddhaRepublicanParty
PRP    PanchayatRajParty
PSJP    ParivartanSamajParty
PTSS    ProutistSarvaSamajParty
PWPI    PeasantsAndWorkersPartyofIndia
RCP    RashtravadiCommunistParty
RCPI(R)    RevolutionaryCommunistPartyofIndia(RasikBhatt)
RGD    RashtriyaGaribDal
RHD    RashtriyaHamaraDal
RJAP    RashtriyaJanadhikarParty
RJD    RashtriyaJanataDal
RJVP    RajasthanVikasParty
RKSP    RashtriyaKrantikariSamajwadiParty
RLD    RashtriyaLokDal
RLD    RashtriyaLokDal
RLSM    RashtriyaLokSevaMorcha
RPD    RashtriyaParivartanDal
RPI    RepublicanPartyofIndia
RPI(A)    RepublicanPartyofIndia(A)
RPI(D)    RepublicanPartyOfIndia(Democratic)
RPI(KH)    RepublicanPartyOfIndia(Khobragade)
RSBP    RashtriyaSwabhimaanParty
RSD    RashtriyaSawarnDal
RSGP    RashtriyaGarimaParty
RSKP    RashtriyaSakarParty
RSMD    RashtriyaSamantaDal
RSNP    RashtriyaSamajikNayakPaksha
RSP    RevolutionarySocialistParty
RSP    RevolutionarySocialistParty
RSPS    RashtriyaSamajPaksha
RVNP    RashtravadiJanataParty
RVP    RashtriyaVikasParty
SAD    ShiromaniAkaliDal
SAD(M)    ShiromaniAkaliDal(SimranjitSinghMann)
SAP    SamataParty
SBS    ShikshitBerozgarSena
SBSP    SuheldevBhartiyaSamajParty
SDF    SikkimDemocraticFront
SDP    SocialisticDemocraticParty
SHRP    SikkimHimaliRajyaParishad
SHS    Shivsena
SHS    Shivsena
SHSP    ShoshitSamajParty
SJP(R)    SamajwadiJanataParty(Rashtriya)
SLAP    SocialActionParty
SLP(L)    SocialistParty(Lohia)
SMSP    SamataSamajParty
SP    SamajwadiParty
SP    SamajwadiParty
SPI    SecularPartyofIndia
SPVD    SampurnaVikasDal
SSD    ShoshitSamajDal
SSJP    SanatanSamajParty
SSP    SikkimSangramParishad
SVRP    ShivrajyaParty
SVSP    SavarnSamajParty
SWD    SwarajDal
SWJP    SamajwadiJanParishad
TDK    TamilDesiyakKatchi
TDP    TeluguDesam
TNGP    TrinamoolGanaParishad
TRS    TelanganaRashtraSamithi
UGDP    UnitedGoansDemocraticParty
UKKD    UttarakhandKrantiDal
UMFA    UnitedMinoritiesFront,Assam
USYP    UrsSamyukthaPaksha
VJC    VidharbhaJanataCongress
VJP    VijetaParty
VP    VikasParty
VRP    VidharbhaRajyaParty
YGP    YuvaGantantraParty
YSP    YouthandStudentsParty


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