India’s 2009 General Elections: How drastically will the vote-share of political parties change from 2004?

Close to 389 million valid votes were cast in India’s previous General Election in 2004 to the 14th Lok Sabha, according to  the Election Commission’s volume STATISTICAL REPORT ON GENERAL ELECTIONS, 2004 TO THE 14th LOK SABHA VOLUME III (DETAILS FOR ASSEMBLY SEGMENTS OF PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCIES).

Unfortunately, the Election Commission, like the Government of India in general,  remains extremely uncomfortable with using  Excel or any spreadsheets at all, and hence much of the information they provide remains unproductive — reflecting, I am afraid,  rather obsolescent technology and organisation and management. From an Excel spreadsheet I have had to create for myself using EC data, my calculations give the following breakdown of the votes received in 2004 by most of the larger political parties:

2004 Lok Sabha Elections

ADMK    AllIndiaAnnaDravidaMunnetraKazhagam       8,547,014

AGP    AsomGanaParishad                    2,069,600

AIFB    AllIndiaForwardBloc                    1,365,055

AITC    AllIndiaTrinamoolCongress                    7,863,220

BJD    BijuJanataDal                    5,082,849

BJP    BharatiyaJanataParty                    86,181,116

BSP    BahujanSamajParty                    21,037,968

CPI    CommunistPartyofIndia                    5,484,111

CPI(ML)(L)    CommunistPartyofIndia(Marxist-Leninist)(Liberation)                    1,280,240

CPM    CommunistPartyofIndia(Marxist)                    22,065,283

DMK    DravidaMunnetraKazhagam                    7,064,393

INC    IndianNationalCongress                    103,118,475

IND    Independents                    16,523,857

INLD    IndianNationalLokDal                    1,918,943

JD(S)    JanataDal(Secular)                    5,732,296

JD(U)    JanataDal(United)                    9,129,366

JMM    JharkhandMuktiMorcha                    1,846,843

MDMK    MarumalarchiDravidaMunnetraKazhagam                    1,679,870

PMK    PattaliMakkalKatchi                    2,169,020

NCP    NationalistCongressParty                    7,019,236

RJD    RashtriyaJanataDal                    9,384,147

RLD    RashtriyaLokDal                    2,463,603

RSP    RevolutionarySocialistParty                    1,689,794

SAD    ShiromaniAkaliDal                    3,506,681

SHS    ShivSena                    7,050,432

SP    SamajwadiParty                    16,822,902

TDP    TeluguDesam                    11,844,811

TRS    TelanganaRashtraSamithi                    2,441,405

That accounts for 372,382,530.  The precise total of valid votes that I get by tabulating EC data using my spreadsheet is 388,920,557.  The EC itself reports in the very same document a total of 388,672,504.  The percentage difference is close enough to zero but it should be zero itself; I shall be delighted if my spreadsheet’s total is the incorrect one somehow, even though it uses the EC’s own data; but it does lead me to ask: “Who, if anyone, audits the Election Commission’s numerical calculations and vote tallies?  Why  is India’s ordinary public not informed about all this and other processes of the Election Commission perfectly transparently as a matter of routine?  Is reform necessary of the processes and procedures of the Election Commission itself?”.

(Incidentally, the slight discrepancy in the totals could have arisen perhaps because my spreadsheet does, correctly, include the relatively small number of postal ballots, whereas the EC’s total possibly has not done.)

Raw votes  like those described above do not of course translate directly into seats in Parliament but even so they indicate the state of popular political opinion in 2004. By how much will that popular opinion be found to have changed in 2009?  How will demographic changes, and the delimitation exercise that has redrawn constituencies, affect the new outcomes?  These are the kind of grown-up adult questions to ask  yourself if you get bored with the endless pretentious waffle that emerges from our talking-heads on TV  etc regarding the ongoing election.

Notice too the 16.5 million people of India who voted in 2004 for Independents!  What on earth has made Dr Manmohan Singh recently initiate an absurd debate against them?

Here below as well is the full list of  all parties that were in contention in 2004; if you want to know the vote-share any of them received according to my spreadsheet, send in a comment to this post and I shall try to respond.  Better still, look up the EC volume mentioned and create your own spreadsheet from its data, and tell me how accurate mine is.  (But beware, the spreadsheet will have some 60,000 rows to start with!)

Subroto Roy

List of parties in 2004

AB AkhandBharti

ABCD(A)    AkhilBharatiyaCongressDal(Ambedkar)

ABDBM    AkhilBharatiyaDeshBhaktMorcha

ABHM    AkhilBharatHinduMahasabha

ABHS    AkhilBharatiyaSena

ABJS    AkhilBharatiyaJanSangh

ABLTASJM    AkhilBharatiyaLokTantrikAlp-SankhyakJanMorcha

ABLTP    AkhilBharatiyaLoktantraParty

ABRAHP    AkhilBharatiyaRashtriyaAzadHindParty

ABRS    AkhilBharatiyaRajaryaSabha

AC    ArunachalCongress

AD    ApnaDal

ADMK    AllIndiaAnnaDravidaMunnetraKazhagam

AGP    AsomGanaParishad

AIFB    AllIndiaForwardBloc

AIMF    AllIndiaMinoritiesFront

AIMIM    AllIndiaMajlis-E-IttehadulMuslimeen

AITC    AllIndiaTrinamoolCongress

AJSU    AllJharkhandStudentsUnion

AKMDMP    AllKeralaM.G.R.DravidaMunnetraParty

AMB    AmraBangalee

ANC    AmbedkarNationalCongress

AP    AwamiParty

ARP    AmbedkaristRepublicanParty

ASDC    AutonomousStateDemandCommittee

ASP    AmbedkarSamajParty

BBM    BharipaBahujanMahasangha

BBP    BharatiyaBackwardParty

BED    BharatiyaEktaDal

BEP    BharatiyaEklavyaParty

BGTD    BharatiyaGaonTajDal

BJD    BijuJanataDal

BJP    BharatiyaJanataParty

BJVP    BharatiyaJanvadiParty

BKD    BahujanKisanDal

BKLJP    BharatKiLokJimmedarParty

BKRP    BharatKrantiRakshakParty

BLKD    BharatiyaLokKalyanDal

BLP    BharatiyaLabourParty

BMP(AI)    BharatiyaMuhabbatParty(AllIndia)

BMSM    BharatiyaMinoritiesSurakshaMahasangh

BMVP    BharatiyaManavataVikasParty

BNP    BharatiyaNavshaktiparty

BNRP    BharatiyaNagrikParty

BPSGKD    BharatiyaPrajatantrikShudhGandhiwadiKrishakDal

BPSP    BiharPeople’sParty

BPTP    BharatiyaPrajatantraParty

BRP    BharatiyaRashtravadiPaksha

BRPP    BharatiyaRepublicanPaksha

BSDP    BhartiSarvadarshiParishad

BSJM    BharatiyaSurajyaManch

BSK    BharatiyaSarvkalayanKrantiDal

BSP    BahujanSamajParty

BVP    BahujanVikasParty

CPI    CommunistPartyofIndia

CPI(ML)(L)    CommunistPartyofIndia(Marxist-Leninist)(Liberation)

CPM    CommunistPartyofIndia(Marxist)

CSP    ChhattisgarhiSamajParty

DBP    DeshBhaktParty

DBSP    DemocraticBharatiyaSamajParty

DMK    DravidaMunnetraKazhagam

EKD(UP)    EktaKrantiDalU.P.

ES    EktaShakti

EU    EphraimUnion

FCI    FederalCongressofIndia

FPM    FederalPartyofManipur

GGP    GondvanaGantantraParty

HEAP    HinduEktaAndolanParty

HJP    HindustanJantaParty

HM    HindMorcha

HVP    HaryanaVikasParty

IBSP    IndianBahujanSamajwadiParty

IFDP    IndianFederalDemocraticParty

IJP    IndianJusticeParty

INC    IndianNationalCongress

IND    Independent

INL    IndianNationalLeague

INLD    IndianNationalLokDal

JCP    JanChetnaParty

JD(S)    JanataDal(Secular)

JD(U)    JanataDal(United)

JDP    JharkhandDisomParty

JHP    JaiHindParty

JHSP    JanhitSamajParty

JJ    JebamaniJanata

JKAL    JammuAndKashmirAwamiLeague

JKN    Jammu&KashmirNationalConference

JKNPP    Jammu&KashmirNationalPanthersParty

JKP    JharkhandParty

JKP(N)    JharkhandParty(Naren)

JKPDP    Jammu&KashmirPeoplesDemocraticParty

JKPP    JharkhandPeople’sParty

JMM    JharkhandMuktiMorcha

JMP    JanmangalPaksh

JP    JanataParty

JSP    JansattaParty

JUM    JanaUnnayanMancha

JVP    JanataVikasParty

KEC    KeralaCongress

KEC(M)    KeralaCongress(M)

KKJHS    KrantiKariJaiHindSena

KMM    KrantikariManuwadiMorcha

KNDP    KannadaNaduParty

KSVP    KrantikariSamyavadiParty

KVSP    KosiVikasParty

LBP    LokBhalaiParty

LCP    LoktantrikChetnaParty

LJNSP    LokJanShaktiParty

LP(S)    LabourParty(Secular)

LPI(V)    LabourPartyOfIndia(V.V.Prasad)

LPSP    LokpriyaSamajParty

LRP    LokRajyaParty

LSD    LokSewaDal

LSWP    LoktantrikSamajwadiParty

MAG    MaharashtrawadiGomantak

MB(S)P    MoolBharati(S)Party

MBT    MajlisBachaoTahreek

MC    MominConference

MCO    MarxistCo-Ordination

MCPI(S)    MarxistCommunistPartyofIndia(S.S.Srivastava)

MDMK    MarumalarchiDravidaMunnetraKazhagam

MJM    ManavJagritiManch

MNF    MizoNationalFront

MNVP    ManuvadiParty

MPP    ManipurPeople’sParty

MRRC    MaharashtraRajivCongress

MRS    MudirajRashtriyaSamithi

MUL    MuslimLeagueKeralaStateCommittee

NBNP    NavbharatNirmanParty

NCP    NationalistCongressParty

NLP    NationalLoktantrikParty

NMNP    NidayaMalik(N)Party

NPF    NagalandPeoplesFront

NPF    NagalandPeoplesFront

NSP    NationalStudentsParty

NSSP    NiswarthSewaParty

NSTP    NaariShaktiParty

NTRTDP(LP)    NTRTeluguDesamParty(LakshmiParvathi)

PBLP    PhuleBhartiLokParty

PBRML    PaschimBangaRajyaMuslimLeague

PDP    PeoplesDemocraticParty

PDS    PartyforDemocraticSocialism

PHSP    PichhraSamajParty

PMK    PattaliMakkalKatchi

PMP    ParmarthParty

PMSP    PragatisheelManavSamajParty

PP    PrajaParty

PPOI    PyramidPartyofIndia

PRBP    PeoplesRepublicanParty

PRCP    PrabuddhaRepublicanParty

PRP    PanchayatRajParty

PSJP    ParivartanSamajParty

PTSS    ProutistSarvaSamajParty

PWPI    PeasantsAndWorkersPartyofIndia

RCP    RashtravadiCommunistParty

RCPI(R)    RevolutionaryCommunistPartyofIndia(RasikBhatt)

RGD    RashtriyaGaribDal

RHD    RashtriyaHamaraDal

RJAP    RashtriyaJanadhikarParty

RJD    RashtriyaJanataDal

RJVP    RajasthanVikasParty

RKSP    RashtriyaKrantikariSamajwadiParty

RLD    RashtriyaLokDal

RLD    RashtriyaLokDal

RLSM    RashtriyaLokSevaMorcha

RPD    RashtriyaParivartanDal

RPI    RepublicanPartyofIndia

RPI(A)    RepublicanPartyofIndia(A)

RPI(D)    RepublicanPartyOfIndia(Democratic)

RPI(KH)    RepublicanPartyOfIndia(Khobragade)

RSBP    RashtriyaSwabhimaanParty

RSD    RashtriyaSawarnDal

RSGP    RashtriyaGarimaParty

RSKP    RashtriyaSakarParty

RSMD    RashtriyaSamantaDal

RSNP    RashtriyaSamajikNayakPaksha

RSP    RevolutionarySocialistParty

RSP    RevolutionarySocialistParty

RSPS    RashtriyaSamajPaksha

RVNP    RashtravadiJanataParty

RVP    RashtriyaVikasParty

SAD    ShiromaniAkaliDal

SAD(M)    ShiromaniAkaliDal(SimranjitSinghMann)

SAP    SamataParty

SBS    ShikshitBerozgarSena

SBSP    SuheldevBhartiyaSamajParty

SDF    SikkimDemocraticFront

SDP    SocialisticDemocraticParty

SHRP    SikkimHimaliRajyaParishad

SHS    Shivsena

SHS    Shivsena

SHSP    ShoshitSamajParty

SJP(R)    SamajwadiJanataParty(Rashtriya)

SLAP    SocialActionParty

SLP(L)    SocialistParty(Lohia)

SMSP    SamataSamajParty

SP    SamajwadiParty

SP    SamajwadiParty

SPI    SecularPartyofIndia

SPVD    SampurnaVikasDal

SSD    ShoshitSamajDal

SSJP    SanatanSamajParty

SSP    SikkimSangramParishad

SVRP    ShivrajyaParty

SVSP    SavarnSamajParty

SWD    SwarajDal

SWJP    SamajwadiJanParishad

TDK    TamilDesiyakKatchi

TDP    TeluguDesam

TNGP    TrinamoolGanaParishad

TRS    TelanganaRashtraSamithi

UGDP    UnitedGoansDemocraticParty

UKKD    UttarakhandKrantiDal

UMFA    UnitedMinoritiesFront,Assam

USYP    UrsSamyukthaPaksha

VJC    VidharbhaJanataCongress

VJP    VijetaParty

VP    VikasParty

VRP    VidharbhaRajyaParty

YGP    YuvaGantantraParty

YSP    YouthandStudentsParty

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